Case study
Perspective: China
Chapter 01

One map, seen from Beijing

The Chinese Communist Party's worldview is not a mystery, even if it is often mistranslated in the West. It combines three inheritances: a civilisational self-image as the Middle Kingdom, a Leninist party-state that treats regime survival as the supreme goal, and a modern trauma known as the 'century of humiliation' (1839-1949) — a period when foreign powers carved concessions out of Chinese territory, forced opium into Chinese ports and imposed unequal treaties. Every major foreign-policy move — Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Belt and Road, tech self-sufficiency — is legible once you accept these three lenses at once. This module tries to draw the world the way Beijing does.

Chapter 02

The century of humiliation

From the First Opium War (1839) to the founding of the People's Republic (1949), China lost wars to Britain, France, Russia, Japan and an eight-nation coalition, ceded Hong Kong and Macau, watched foreign gunboats patrol the Yangtze, and endured the Japanese invasion of 1937-45 with millions of civilian dead. The lesson the Party draws is not primarily moral but structural: a China that is militarily and technologically weaker than its rivals will be dismembered. National rejuvenation (中华民族伟大复兴) — Xi's signature phrase — is not empty rhetoric. It is a promise that the humiliation will not be repeated, backed by the largest peacetime military build-up in modern history.

Chapter 03

Taiwan: the unfinished civil war

From Beijing's map, Taiwan is not a foreign-policy problem; it is the last unresolved piece of the Chinese civil war (1927-1949), the island where the defeated Kuomintang fled and where an American security guarantee has frozen the outcome for 75 years. Reunification — peaceful if possible, forcible if necessary — is treated as non-negotiable, tied directly to Party legitimacy and Xi's personal legacy. The military build-up opposite the Taiwan Strait, the near-daily incursions into Taiwan's air defence zone, and the rehearsed amphibious exercises are not sabre-rattling in the Western sense; they are preparation and signalling within a timeline that Beijing believes is closing. Every US arms sale, every high-level visit, every talk of Taiwanese independence is read as a step toward permanent separation — the one outcome the Party has said it will fight to prevent.

Chapter 04

The wall of American allies

Look at East Asia from Beijing rather than from Washington and the picture inverts: China is not encircling its neighbours, it is encircled. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and (further out) Australia and Guam form a chain of US treaty allies and bases that sits between Chinese ports and the open Pacific. The US Seventh Fleet operates freely inside what Beijing considers near-seas. Every Chinese warship heading to blue water passes within missile range of an American ally. This is why the artificial islands in the South China Sea, the naval build-up, the pressure on the Philippines, and the courting of Pacific island states are not opportunistic — they are a systematic attempt to punch a hole in a containment ring the Party regards as directed squarely at China.

Chapter 05

The Malacca dilemma

Roughly 80% of Chinese crude oil imports and a huge share of manufactured exports pass through the Malacca Strait — a narrow shipping lane between Malaysia and Indonesia patrolled effectively by the US Navy and its partners. Hu Jintao named this the 'Malacca dilemma' in 2003 and every Chinese leader since has tried to solve it: pipelines through Myanmar, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor terminating at Gwadar, Arctic shipping routes, rail links across Central Asia, refineries and storage inside China. None of these fully substitute for Malacca, but together they are meant to make a US blockade unaffordable politically and militarily. From Beijing, freedom of navigation is not an abstract principle — it is a chokepoint held by a rival that could throttle the Chinese economy in wartime.

Chapter 06

Belt and Road: infrastructure as statecraft

Announced by Xi in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative has committed roughly $1 trillion across 150+ countries in ports, railways, power plants, telecoms and pipelines. From the Western media it looks like a debt-trap or a vanity project; from Beijing it is three things at once. First, an outlet for over-capacity in Chinese construction, steel and cement. Second, a set of strategic access points — Djibouti (China's first overseas base), Gwadar, Piraeus, Hambantota — that reduce dependence on US-controlled sea lanes. Third, a soft-power alternative to the Western-led order: infrastructure without political conditions, offered to states the World Bank underserves. The BRI is not always coherent and has produced real backlash, but its logic is defensive as much as expansive — building a Eurasian economic space in which China, not America, is the central node.

Chapter 07

Tech self-sufficiency as survival

The 2018 ZTE ban and the 2019-2022 escalation of US export controls on advanced chips changed Beijing's calculations permanently. What had been a preference for indigenous innovation became an existential program: 'Made in China 2025', the Big Fund for semiconductors, massive subsidies for SMIC and Huawei, and a scramble to secure critical minerals, EUV alternatives and AI talent. The framing inside China is explicit — the US will use technology denial to prevent Chinese rise, exactly as it once used gunboats. Self-sufficiency in chips, aerospace engines, industrial software and biotech is treated not as economic policy but as national security of the highest order. Every US chip-control tightening reinforces the same conclusion.

Chapter 08

Russia: the junior partner Beijing didn't want but will take

The Sino-Russian relationship after 2022 is asymmetric in a way that would have been unthinkable in 1969. Russia now sells oil and gas at discounts, buys Chinese cars and electronics to replace Western brands, routes payments through the yuan, and depends on Beijing's diplomatic cover at the UN. From Beijing this is a windfall — a resource-rich neighbour with a 4,200 km border, permanently unable to pivot back to the West, offering energy security and a shared interest in weakening US-led alliances. It is also a liability: Russia is unpredictable, its war in Ukraine complicates Chinese relations with Europe, and its long-term decline means China inherits problems on its northern frontier. Beijing manages this with careful ambiguity — no arms shipments, but full economic support; rhetorical solidarity, but no formal alliance.

Chapter 09

The Global South as a majority coalition

China's most successful diplomatic project of the last decade is not the Belt and Road but the reframing of itself as leader of the Global South — the ~130 states of Asia, Africa and Latin America that were never part of the Western-led post-1945 order in any meaningful sense. BRICS expansion, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, votes at the UN General Assembly, financing for African rail and Latin American lithium — all of it aims at building a coalition that is not anti-Western so much as post-Western. From Beijing, the American-led order rests on a shrinking demographic and economic minority; time is on the side of a multipolar system in which China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and others set the rules alongside — not beneath — Washington and Brussels.

Chapter 10

What the map tells you

The Chinese map is defensive at its core and revisionist at its edges. Defensive: keep the Party in power, prevent another century of humiliation, secure the sea lanes, finish the civil war on Party terms, and build technological independence before the window closes. Revisionist: rewrite the rules of the international system so that a country of 1.4 billion is not a rule-taker in an order it did not design. Whether these objectives are compatible with peace depends less on Chinese intent than on how the United States and its allies respond — and Beijing knows it. Every crisis in the Taiwan Strait, every export control, every naval incident is filtered through this frame. Understand it, and Chinese behaviour stops being inscrutable.

Sources & further reading: Tim Marshall, Prisoners of Geography; Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard; Timothy Snyder, The Road to Unfreedom; Anne Applebaum, Autocracy, Inc.; Alex Krijger, public analyses; Joris Luyendijk, reporting on Europe & Russia.
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